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Derren Brown, Lottery Prediction and Crowd Wisdom - 12 September 2009

Here are the implications of Derren Brown's findings that that a group of people can use their minds to influence a lottery result

If you haven't already heard about this, live on British TV on Wednesday 9th September, celebrity mentalist Derren used a system called 'crowd theory' to accurately predict the UK Lottery result.  The predictions wre correct.  All six numbers came out in the predicted order.  On Friday 11th September, he explained how he did it.  You can watch the original show and explanation show here.

Basically, Derren used a system called 'the wisdom of the crowd' which originates from Francis Galton's findings in the seventeenth century.  A farmer ran a competiton to 'guess the weight of the cow'.  One person did actually win the cow.  But Galton found that the average of all of the individual predictions was, in fact, the exact weight of the cow.

Derren used this principle to organise his experiment.

On week one, Derren gathered together a group of 24 people and asked them to study the previous year's lottery results.  Then he asked them to pick six numbers.  The average of each of their six number predictions was calculated and the group placed a bet.  They predicted three numbers correctly.  That's good - but thousands of people every week do exactly the same thing and it's only worth £10.  That's hardly life-changing.

The following week, the group went on a teambuilding exercise.  They got to know each other better and again, met to predict the numbers.  This time Derren changed the process.  This time, the group DID NOT place a bet, so that any emotional attachment to the outcome disappeared.  The group used automatic writing, a system used by psychics in the earlier part of the 20th century, to come up with six numbers.  Automatic writing requires the participant to relax, detach themselves from their pencil, and scrawl without thought until something comes through, presumably by channelling a spirit or univeral force.  The average of their numbers was taken but not calculated until AFTER the live lottery draw. 

This time, they predicted four numbers correctly, and in the right order.  Their two incorrect numbers were spookily close, too.

The group was excited by the prospect of improving their prediction and convinced that they could do it.  They had one more shot, the following Wednesday.

And sure enough, on Wednesday 9th September, using automatic writing and averaging individual predictions, the group not only correctly predicted all six of the lottery numbers, but in their correct order. 

UK Lottery organiser Camelot confirms that this is not a fake and that their equipment has not been tampered with.

If Derren is correct, what larger implications does 'the wisdom of the crowd' offer?  Was it really a prediction?  Or did the group somehow influence the results through the power of intention? 

Can a like-minded crowd influence world peace, the environment or purify water just by thinking about it?

On Sunday 13th September, Lynne McTaggart, author of The Intention Experiment, is going to attempt to do just that.

Lynne regularly invites large groups of participants to try and influence a scientific experiemnt using only the power of their minds.  Lynne suggests participants relax, and then 'power up' before sending a clear intention directed towards the a specific target at an allocated time.  Previous experiments have included making a leaf glow and germinating seeds.

Lynne organises her studies using her website and thousands of online participants.  Her findings indicate that controlled experiments can be influenced by group intention: the leaf did glow more strongly and plants sent intentions did grow taller. 

There are difference between Derren and Lynne's experiments.  Derren's Lottery Prediction seemed to suggest that the better a group bonded, the better the result.  Lynne uses a network of individuals worldwide, most of whom are brought together only by their internet connection.  Are Lynn's subjects just as influential? Could their results be improved by groups meeting in person and getting to know one another?

Those experienced in meditation have the greatest influential powers, according to Lynne Taggart's research.  In fact, the idea for The Intention Experiment first came to Lynne from the Transcendental Meditation movement in 1980s.

In 1983 a special TM assembly met in Israel to attempt to use meditation to resolve the Palestinian conflict. During their sessions, they made daily comparisons between the number of meditators working on the project and the state of Arab-Israeli relations. On days with a high number of meditators, fatalities in Lebanon fell by 76 per cent. Ordinary violence - local crime, traffic accidents and fires - all decreased.

Prayer has long been silently acknowledged as helpful to healing by doctors.  We've all heard stories of patients with terminal illnesses who have miraculously recovered through the power of faith.

Jon Kabat-Zinnfounded the Centre for Mindfulness at the University of Massachusetts Medical centre in the nineties.  Jon's aim is to reduce the stress levels of patients by teaching them relaxation and mindfulness techniques. 

A randomized clinical trial [Kabat-Zinn, Wheeler, et al 1998] showed that patients with moderate to severe psoriasis undergoing phototherapy or photochemotherapy and who listened to guided meditation tapes while receiving the ultraviolet light treatments healed at approximately four times the rate of subjects receiving just the light treatments.

Jon also notes in his Mindfulness for Beginners that he has seen prayer groups have a miraculous healing effect on the sick.

Is this 'crowd theory' one of many mysteries of the mind we have yet to unlock?

If you're want to know more about the cutting edge of mind-body research, check out Kelly Howell's excellent Theatre of The Mind.  TOTM is available as a regular, free iTunes podcast and every episode features Kelly interviewing an expert in the scientific and spiritual fields.  Guests include Lynne McTaggart and topics have included healing, mindmapping and Silva Mind Control.

If you're interested in joining a group to send intentions, try The Intention Experiment website or Do As One.  Do As One are a group from California with a beautiful and relaxing site aimed at helping you relax and just breathe.  They also have a goal; to have one billion people breathing together by November 2012.

So can crowd theory help you, say, find the money to go to college?

If you are scientifically-minded or a skeptic and want to find a rational way to influence your student finances, I can recommend my book, Free Degrees.  It uses well-known, tried and tested methods of raising money like running fundraising events, gaining business sponsorship and applying to charitable trusts.  With this method, I successfully raised over £25,000 and I never once sat and meditated about it.

However, I always believed I would do it.  Even from day one when I had zilch, I had faith.  And I had a huge group of people behind me, helping me raise money and providing support and encouragement.  Without their help, I couldn't have done it.  We only did concrete and physical activities to raise money, like running karaoke evenings and raffkes, but it is true to say that a huge group of people all defiintely wanted me to succeed, raise the money and go to college.

Maybe there is something in the 'wisdom of the crowd'.